In our daily life, on social networks or in a casual conversation, we are frequently exposed to non-standardized informations about an event that can be opposed to official reports.
This non-standardized information which imputes the causality of an event to hidden and often harmful sources is commonly refered to as « conspiracy theories ». As an example, it is possible to mention the belief that vaccination can cause a form of juvenile autism. In France, this irrational belief caused in 2011 a steep fall in vaccination statistics and could have been responsible for the outbreak of an epidemic, in particular among the most at risk population. That’s why it is important to identify and understand psychological mechanisms that can occur in such beliefs. In this study, we will put the focus on the predictive effect of the illusory correlation and causal attributions in conspiracy beliefs.
The illusory correlation is a cognitive misconception defined as the establishment of a link between two events that are, in fact, not liable to be connected. A classic assertion is to consider conspiracy belief as based on the perception of a correlation between events that are not linked.
Causal attributions are, on the other hand, all the information and psychological mechanisms involved to impute the causality of a event or a social behaviour. Basically, causal attributions are intended to identify how people respond to any question starting by« why ? ». There are two possibilities, whether people consider that events that affect them are the result of their actions (internal locus of control), or the result of external factors on which they have no influence, aschance, coincidence or government (external locus of control).
Our hypothesis was that a high level of illusory correlation and an external locus of control will lead to a higher adhesion to conspiracy theories.
Three questionnaires have been completed by 264 students from different educational backgrounds and levels. The results showed that only the illusory correlation had a significant impact on the adhesion to conspiracy theories. So, these results are consistent with previous studies which defined the role of illusory correlation in conspiracy beliefs. But these results also show that only 4% of the variance is explained by this variable, minimizing the leading role given to it by literacy. This low variance also means that there is a lot of factors and mechanisms which need to be identified in order to fully explain why people can adhere to conspiracy theories.
Key words : Conspiracy belief ; Conspiracary theories ; Causal attribution ; Illusory correlation ;
Words learned :
- Harmful: Néfaste
- Steep: Une chute
- Background : Milieu
- Consistent: Cohérent
Reference :
Anthony Lantian. (2015). Rôle fonctionnel de l’adhésion aux théories du complot : un moyen de distinction ?. Psychologie. Université Grenoble Alpes. Français.